Contingency and Cricket

Cricket is a game of contingency. Every decision made in the game relies on a series of apparently insignificant pieces of information.

If we win the toss...
If we bat first...
If the sun comes out...
If so-and-so gets into his innings...
If so-and-so is unable to complete his bowling spell...
If the Duckworth-Lewis system kicks in...
If he bowls a no-ball...
If he scores a boundary...

This form of decision making is actually very mathematical. Logic (which is largely based on contingency) forms an enormous part of modern mathematical research.

What are the real, logical implications of a certain piece of data?
I guess maybe we'll have to watch the rest of the match!